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Adrian Gonzalez’s Slump is More of a Regression to Career Averages

By Scott Andes

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Dodger’s first baseman Adrian Gonzalez got off to a very hot start this year. The veteran slugger hit .383 with 8 home runs and 19 runs batted in during the first month of the season. That included hitting five home runs in the club’s first three games of the season to set a major league record. 

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    • Unfortunately Gonzo has hit the skids recently. He posted a .733 OPS in May, and now has a .390 slugging percentage in the month of June. He’s hit just three home runs since May 1. Since May 1, Gonzo is hitting .266/. 363/.409 with three home runs, and 24 runs batted in. He hasn’t been terrible, he’s just come down to earth a bit.

    People are already freaking out about it. Most people would say Gonzalez is in a slump. I wouldn’t say that. I think it’s more of a regression, than a slump. Here, let me explain why.

    Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

    Most players are going to play to their career norms. Sometimes a player can have an amazing year, and sometimes a player can have a down year. Most of the time, they’ll put up their career averages. This holds true considering the said player is healthy.

    So we take Adrian Gonzalez. His career numbers say he’s a .293 hitter. He’s not a .350 hitter, and he’s not a .330 hitter. He’s not even a .300 hitter. Last season Gonzo batted .276, which was a bit below his career average. However the year before in 2013, he hit exactly .293.

    Gonzalez averages around 28 home runs per season. He’s already hit 11 this year. That means he’s going to be around 30. Maybe he’ll hit 35, which is possible. More than likely, he’ll put up his career numbers. That means he will hit around .290-.295 with 25-30 home runs, and about 100 runs batted in.

    Those are still great numbers. Gonzalez is still a great hitter. If you remember he did the same thing last year. Got off to a hot start, and cooled off in the summer time. People wondered if he would ever hit again, but you know what, he did. Gonzo is still the best hitter on the club.

    Gonzo can’t do it all himself though. Other guys in the lineup have to produce too. In the meantime, Gonzo will regress back to his career averages, and then eventually he’ll start to hit again. It all evens out in the end.

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