The San Francisco Giants acquired Jake Peavy earlier today for minor leaguers Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree. This means more to the Dodgers aside from the fact that Peavy is pretty much Dan Haren and the Dodgers should have lots of fun in his starts versus them. The trade market for non-aces has been established now. David Price isn’t going anywhere given that the Rays are back in the race, Jon Lester should be shipped off, but wont be, again Cole Hamels should be dealt but wont be, Cliff Lee might, but given his health issues, I can’t really see a trade happening before the July 31st trade deadline. If Lee gets moved i’d bet it happens during August.
So it’s quite conceivable that none of the frontline starting pitchers get dealt before July 31st. If you haven’t noticed, the Dodgers need at least one starting pitcher, but could really use two.
It’s a good thing the Dodgers didn’t get Peavy because Jake Peavy isn’t good at baseball anymore. Declining K/9 rate, rising BB/9, more homeruns given up. On pace to have his worst FIP (4.81) since 2003, this is a declining pitcher. And whether the Giants acquired him for the playoff history, a good clubhouse guy, potential to be better in the confines of AT&T park, which hasn’t exactly saved Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum over the past 2 seasons, the history he had versus the Dodgers (most of which happened half a decade ago), it doesn’t matter. The point is, the Giants gave up a top 60 prospect coming into the season, and a good relief piece for Jake Peavy,a #4 starter at best nowadays.
Granted, Escobar has fallen off recently posting an ERA at 5.11 and a FIP at 4.98, but that’s in the PCL, and we are excusing Zach Lee of doing the exact same thing, which is interesting. Zach Lee and Edwin Escobar had some similar profiles coming into the season, both were advanced, young arms, both are 22 years old, both have put up some really bad numbers in the nightmare known as the pacific coast league.
So these are similar arms, nobody really wants to give up Zach Lee and another piece, say… Jose Dominguez for A.J. Burnett, or Edwin Jackson, or Scott Feldman, or Jorge De La Rosa, these would all be horrible, horribad deals, Zach Lee could still be a strong #4 starter, a cheap solution to the troubles the Dodgers have had filling the back end of the rotation. Would all of the aforementioned arms be beneficial to the team? Of course. But the point is maximizing the value your farm system has, and giving up a promising starter in AAA who could be a durable, cheap #4 starter as soon as next season for 10 starts of a more expensive #4 starter doesn’t make a whole lot of sense does it?
This isn’t to say not to deal any prospects, because that’s what it’s going to take to shore up the rotation. However, use your financial muscle to your advantage, go out, absorb Bartolo Colon‘s contract, and trade away something like Chris Reed.
The Mets want to get rid of Colon, they are even willing to swallow a portion of his salary in order to make a deal, which is puzzling why the Dodgers haven’t swooped in. Yes, Colon is old, yes he has used steroids in the past, yes he is owed a ton of money (11 million next year), but he has been exactly what the Dodger need this season. He’s been an average SP in terms of FIP-(100 is considered average) which sits at 99, his future performance predictors look quite good as he has a 3.76 SIERA which takes into account how hard balls are hit, his expected FIP- (same scale, 100 is considered average) sits at 100.
So Colon is pretty much the definition of an average starting pitcher. An average starting pitcher on a mediocre contract, who is averaging 6.2 innings per start this year, and could probably be had for a Chris Reed type guy (given the 11 million dollar figure next year). That’s definitely someone I would rather have taking the hill every 5th day than Dan Haren.
He also protects against the inevitable injured Josh Beckett meteor down to planet earth.
And also: this