The Orioles are young, smart, and now have proven that they can hang in the AL East. Their pythag record last year did not match actual win/loss record. Their win total was far ahead of their pythag, which means, they should have made a few adjustments heading into 2013. Like BABIP, we should expect the Orioles return to the mean. Pythag is the win/loss record you should have according to your runs scored/runs against tally for the season. Since they didn’t add anyone major to their roster to improve their pythag, we can assume that Baltimore’s actual win total will dip a bit from last year.
It should be noted that Buck Showalter is a pretty good manager. I don’t think there is a manager in the game that can add more than 10 or so wins out of any team, but Showalter showed last year that he can find or create a new undervalued market in the game. Apparently he polled major league relievers and asked what might he, as a manager, do better. Overwhelmingly, the answer was, “don’t warm me up and not put me in the game.” Showalter took it a step further. He doesn’t unnecessarily warm up pitchers, but he also pays close attention to how many pitches they throw and how ofter they throw. Not only did the relievers of the Orioles appreciate the gesture, they thrived on the consistency that Showalter offered by having one of the better bullpens in the majors last year.