Oct 3, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Dodgers 2013 Player Projections Part Two


As a follow up to my hitter projections, below you will find the pitcher projections.  This proved to be quite a bit more challenging, as the depth in the starting rotation really made it difficult to project how many innings each starter would get outside of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

As stated in the last article, “They were then given a 50/30/20 weight – 50% weight for 2012 statistics, 30% weight for 2011 statistics and 20% weight for 2010 statistics. This gives 2012 the most impact on the 2013 projections.”

These projections took more manual manipulation than those of their offensive minded counterparts. I kept the pitcher projections to a 162 game schedule and you’ll notice I have the Dodgers as being a very effective and dominant team as a whole.  This is not biased homer-ism, this is a great team.  The only weakness is our defense, but even then we only have two below average defenders in Andre Ethier and Hanley Ramirez.  Their bats more than make up for their defensive shortcomings.

The pitcher projections are as follows:

Player ERA Kd9 BBd9 W L S INN ER K BB
Josh Beckett 3.676 7.500 2.745 13 10 0 183.6 75 153 56
Chad   Billingsley 3.949 7.707 3.248 8 7 0 141.3 62 121 51
Zack Greinke 3.288 8.417 2.367 15 9 0 205.3 75 192 54
Chris Capuano 4.063 7.375 2.750 9 8 0 144 65 118 44
Scott Elbert 3.133 8.259 3.987 1 1 1 31.6 11 29 14
Stephen Fife 4.635 6.180 3.863 1 2 0 23.3 12 16 10
Javy Guerra 3.231 7.385 4.154 3 1 0 39 14 32 18
Matt Guerrier 4.583 6.250 3.750 0 1 0 21.6 11 15 9
Aaron Harang 4.111 6.667 3.778 4 5 0 81 37 60 34
J.P. Howell 3.251 7.357 3.935 2 2 0 52.6 19 43 23
Kenley Jansen 2.630 12.857 3.653 3 2 21 61.6 18 88 25
Clayton   Kershaw 2.712 9.164 2.589 18 7 0 219 66 223 63
Brandon   League 3.142 6.913 3.520 1 3 24 71.6 25 55 28
Ted Lilly 3.802 7.060 3.026 7 5 0 116 49 91 39
Hyun-Jin Ryu 4.044 6.717 3.701 7 7 0 131.3 59 98 54

Some notes:

Kenley Jansen:  If you buy into the notion that your most dominant reliever should be the closer, than clearly Jansen is the man for the job.  I don’t buy into this notion – I think your best reliever should be used in the highest leverage situation.  If the game is on the line in the 7th inning, I want the best pitcher in there to reserve our lead, otherwise the 9th inning doesn’t matter.  I don’t believe that Mattingly buys in this theory and assume that with the pressure put on him after a few blown saves fom Leauge he will either go with a timeshare in the role or give it outright to Jansen.

Clayton Kershaw:Stud.

Hyun-Jin Ryu: As I said in my hitter projections, this gave me fits.  It’s a guesstimate at best and seemingly more pessimistic than other projections I’ve seen.  Time will tell.

Aaron Harang: He is not good but as a fifth starter you could do a lot worse.  Depending on who you ask, he is either our 6th, 7th or 8th starter.  That is amazing depth.

Aside from Fife and Guerrier, there are no weak spots in this rotation.  No way they accumulate enough innings to do damage and based on the projections above the Dodgers would end the season at 92 – 70.

What do you think?  If anyone wants specific in-depth looks, just request it in the comments and I will be happy to oblige.

Tags: Aaron Harang Brandon League Chad Billingsley Chris Capuano Clayton Kershaw Hyun-jin Ryu J.P. Howell Josh Beckett Kenley Jansen Los Angeles Dodgers Scott Elbert Stephen Fife Zack Greinke